Pacific Hurricane and Tropical Cyclone Track Updates

Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Discussion



027 
WTPZ41 KNHC 152034
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062022
400 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022

Metop-B and -C scatterometer data today show the depression has a 
well-defined surface circulation with a couple areas of 25-30 kt 
winds to the north and northeast of its center. Overall, the deep 
convection has become more fragmented this afternoon, although there 
is new convective development near its center noted in recent 
visible and infrared satellite imagery. Based on the scatterometer 
winds, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. 

The center of the depression has been relocated about 20-30 n mi 
northeast of previous estimates based on scatterometer winds and 
microwave data, and its initial motion is northwestward at 315/7 kt. 
However, it is expected to resume a more west-northwestward heading 
by tonight as it becomes steered by a mid-level ridge well to its 
north. This track should keep the cyclone well offshore of 
southwestern Mexico as it moves roughly parallel to the coast during 
the next couple of days. The cyclone is forecast to continue 
west-northwestward with a slight increase in forward speed on days 
3-5 as the steering ridge remains entrenched to its north. The 
latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the right of the 
previous one, largely a product of the center relocation and 
its effect on the near-term track. 

Strengthening is expected during the next several days as the 
atmospheric and oceanic conditions are favorable along its track. 
Very warm SSTs, abundant mid-level moisture, and weak to moderate 
deep-layer northeasterly shear should provide a conducive 
environment for intensification through early next week, and the 
system is forecast to become a hurricane by early Sunday. The SHIPS 
guidance continues to highlight the potential for some significant 
strengthening, and the official NHC forecast remains on the high end 
of the guidance between SHIPS and the IVCN consensus aid. The 
deep-layer shear is forecast to increase by 72-96 h, and this 
combined with cooler SSTs should cause weakening by days 4-5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 13.0N 100.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 13.4N 102.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 14.1N 103.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 14.9N 105.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  17/1800Z 15.6N 106.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  18/0600Z 16.3N 108.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  18/1800Z 17.0N 110.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  19/1800Z 18.5N 115.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  20/1800Z 20.5N 120.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart




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