027 WTPZ41 KNHC 152034 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 400 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 Metop-B and -C scatterometer data today show the depression has a well-defined surface circulation with a couple areas of 25-30 kt winds to the north and northeast of its center. Overall, the deep convection has become more fragmented this afternoon, although there is new convective development near its center noted in recent visible and infrared satellite imagery. Based on the scatterometer winds, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. The center of the depression has been relocated about 20-30 n mi northeast of previous estimates based on scatterometer winds and microwave data, and its initial motion is northwestward at 315/7 kt. However, it is expected to resume a more west-northwestward heading by tonight as it becomes steered by a mid-level ridge well to its north. This track should keep the cyclone well offshore of southwestern Mexico as it moves roughly parallel to the coast during the next couple of days. The cyclone is forecast to continue west-northwestward with a slight increase in forward speed on days 3-5 as the steering ridge remains entrenched to its north. The latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the right of the previous one, largely a product of the center relocation and its effect on the near-term track. Strengthening is expected during the next several days as the atmospheric and oceanic conditions are favorable along its track. Very warm SSTs, abundant mid-level moisture, and weak to moderate deep-layer northeasterly shear should provide a conducive environment for intensification through early next week, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane by early Sunday. The SHIPS guidance continues to highlight the potential for some significant strengthening, and the official NHC forecast remains on the high end of the guidance between SHIPS and the IVCN consensus aid. The deep-layer shear is forecast to increase by 72-96 h, and this combined with cooler SSTs should cause weakening by days 4-5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 13.0N 100.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 13.4N 102.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 14.1N 103.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 14.9N 105.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 15.6N 106.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 18/0600Z 16.3N 108.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 17.0N 110.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 18.5N 115.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 20.5N 120.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart