Tropical Depression Sara Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT44 KNHC 180233
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Sara Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
900 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Satellite data and radar images from Sabancuy, Mexico, show a small 
area of convection persists near and to the west of the estimated 
low-level center of Sara tonight. Surface observations are sparse in 
the region, but the circulation is likely still closed given the 
satellite presentation of the system. Based on available surface 
wind data, the initial intensity is lowered to 25 kt.

Sara is still moving west-northwestward (300/11 kt) and should 
maintain this heading overnight. Convection associated with Sara is 
expected to collapse overnight with continued land interaction. Sara 
should degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low soon and open into 
a trough of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on 
Monday. While strong upper-level winds over the western Gulf are 
expected to inhibit tropical development, the remnant vorticity and 
moisture could interact with an approaching frontal system and 
contribute to heavy rainfall along the northern Gulf coast early 
this week. For more information, see products issued by the Weather 
Prediction Center. In addition, the threat of heavy rainfall, 
life-threatening flash flooding, and mudslides continues for 
portions of Central America and southern Mexico.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, 
and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, areas of heavy rainfall will 
continue to cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding 
and mudslides.

2. The heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Sara is winding down
across northern Honduras, however the risk of catastrophic flooding
impacts will continue. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 18.1N  90.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 19.3N  92.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart