Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Rose Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT42 KNHC 230238
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Rose Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172021
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021

Rose continues to be devoid of deep convection as shear and dry
mid-level air has taken their toll on the system.  Although Rose
appears to be well on its way to post-tropical cyclone status, it
seems prudent to maintain advisories a little longer since the
system is over warm waters and some convection could return
overnight.  If that does not occur, Rose is likely to become
a remnant low by tomorrow morning, and that is what is indicated in
the official forecast.  The remnant low is forecast to continue to
gradually spin down over the next day or two. The GFS and ECMWF
suggest that some convection could re-develop in the 48-96 h time
period when the remnants of Rose interact with an upper-level
trough, but the NHC forecast once again does not call for
re-generation at that time. In fact, the latest forecast calls for
the system to become an open trough by 96 h, which is supported by
the GFS.

Rose has continued to move west-northwestward or 285/9 kt.  The
cyclone should turn northwestward very soon as it moves around the
western flank of a low- to mid-level ridge. Rose or its remnants
should then turn northward, northeastward, and then eventually
east-northeastward as a deep-layer trough digs southward over the
east-central Atlantic.  The latest guidance envelope has again
shifted westward in the short term, and the updated NHC track
forecast has been adjusted accordingly. After 36 h, the official
forecast lies near the previous advisory and is close to the
various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 24.6N  40.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 25.7N  41.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  24/0000Z 27.2N  42.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/1200Z 28.4N  41.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/0000Z 29.0N  39.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  25/1200Z 29.5N  36.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/0000Z 30.2N  33.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown



Source link