983 WTPZ42 KNHC 252035 TCDEP2 Tropical Depression Rick Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021 Rick has continued to move farther inland over the mountainous terrain of Mexico. The core of the cyclone collapsed earlier this afternoon, and what remains of the deep convection near it's estimated center is gradually dissipating. The strongest convection now associated with the system is located along the coast, and an earlier ASCAT overpass showed that the peak winds in those showers and thunderstorms were only 20 to 25 kt. There are very few surface observations near where the estimated center of Rick is located. Therefore, based primarily on the degradation in the satellite appearance of the cyclone, the initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt. Rick's estimated motion is 355/12 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge to the east of the depression should keep it on this same general trajectory farther inland over Mexico into tonight. Therefore, continued weakening is inevitable. Visible satellite images indicate that the low-level center of Rick is becoming diffuse. Although the NHC forecast shows dissipation in 24 h, this may occur much sooner. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains associated with Rick will continue to spread across the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through tonight, and could persist through Tuesday. This rainfall will likely produce dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 20.0N 102.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 21.5N 102.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto