643 WTPZ41 KNHC 032034 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Orlene Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 03 2022 Strong west-southwesterly shear and the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico have taken a toll on Orlene. The tropical cyclone has rapidly weakened, and is now estimated to be a 30-kt tropical depression. A long-loop of one-minute GOES-17 visible satellite imagery suggests that the center likely came ashore slightly west of the earlier track, but close to the estimated time. Additional weakening is expected, and the low-level center is likely to dissipate this evening. A 12-h point is provided for continuity but Orlene is not likely to exist as a cyclone by that time. Orlene is moving north-northeastward or 025/9 kt. The cyclone or its remnants should continue to move north-northeastward around the northwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge until dissipation occurs. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of Southwest Mexico through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 23.6N 105.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 04/0600Z 24.5N 104.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown