Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Orlene Forecast Discussion


643 
WTPZ41 KNHC 032034
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Orlene Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162022
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 03 2022

Strong west-southwesterly shear and the mountainous terrain of 
southwestern Mexico have taken a toll on Orlene.  The tropical 
cyclone has rapidly weakened, and is now estimated to be a 30-kt 
tropical depression.  A long-loop of one-minute GOES-17 visible 
satellite imagery suggests that the center likely came ashore 
slightly west of the earlier track, but close to the estimated time. 
Additional weakening is expected, and the low-level center is 
likely to dissipate this evening.  A 12-h point is provided for 
continuity but Orlene is not likely to exist as a cyclone by that 
time. 

Orlene is moving north-northeastward or 025/9 kt. The cyclone or 
its remnants should continue to move north-northeastward around the 
northwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge until dissipation 
occurs. 

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding, 
as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of 
Southwest Mexico through Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 23.6N 105.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  04/0600Z 24.5N 104.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown




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