Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion


813 
WTPZ41 KNHC 280249
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012022
1000 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022

The satellite presentation of the low pressure system that the NHC 
has been monitoring south of the southern coast of Mexico for the 
past several days has greatly improved this evening. Earlier 
microwave data and visible satellite imagery showed increased signs 
of curved convective bands wrapping around the low-level center. 
More recently, SSMIS microwave data suggest the inner-core structure 
of the cyclone has improved, and very cold infrared cloud tops have 
spread over the center. The system has achieved sufficient 
convective organization to be designated as the first depression of 
the 2022 Eastern North Pacific hurricane season. The initial 
intensity is set at 30 kt based on a subjective T2.0/30 kt Dvorak 
classification from TAFB, although the initial intensity is somewhat 
uncertain given the lack of recent scatterometer data.

The system is moving westward at 265/6 kt, and this general motion 
is expected to continue for the next 12 h or so. A deep-layer trough 
is forecast to amplify across the western U.S. this weekend, which 
will weaken the ridge to the north of the cyclone. This will allow 
the system to slowly turn northward on Sunday and then move 
northeastward on Monday as it approaches southern Mexico. The 
track models generally agree on this scenario, although the GFS is 
somewhat further east than the rest of the guidance. The official 
NHC forecast lies toward the center of the guidance envelope, 
roughly in between the HFIP corrected-consensus approach (HCCA) and 
the multi-model consensus aids.

Sea-surface temperatures greater than 30 deg C, weak deep-layer 
vertical wind shear, and abundant mid-level moisture are expected to 
support significant intensification of the cyclone this weekend. In 
fact, all of the intensity guidance shows steady strengthening 
during the next few days, and many models including the consensus 
aids bring the cyclone to hurricane intensity within 48 h. The GFS 
SHIPS-RII highlights the potential for rapid intensification of this 
system, with a 52 percent chance of a 35-kt intensification in 24 h. 
The official NHC intensity forecast shows steady strengthening 
during the next few days, with the cyclone becoming a hurricane by 
late Sunday with continued strengthening anticipated as it 
approaches the coast on Monday. This forecast lies between the IVCN 
and HCCA aids through 48-60 h, then falls on the higher end of the 
guidance at 72 h as the official forecast track remains just off the 
coast.

Tropical Storm and/or Hurricane Watches will likely be required 
Saturday morning for portions of the coast of southern Mexico, and 
interests in this region should closely monitor the progress of this 
system.

Key Messages:

1. There is an increasing risk of tropical-storm-force and 
hurricane-force winds along portions of the southern coast of Mexico 
early next week, and Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches will likely 
be required Saturday morning.  Interests in this area should closely 
monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast.

2. Heavy rains associated with Tropical Depression One-E will 
develop over portions of southern Mexico this weekend and continue 
through Tuesday.  This will pose a threat of flash flooding and 
mudslides.  For more information, see products from your local 
weather office. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 12.8N  97.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 12.8N  98.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 13.2N  98.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 13.7N  98.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 14.2N  98.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  30/1200Z 14.7N  98.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  31/0000Z 15.7N  96.9W   80 KT  90 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 96H  01/0000Z 17.2N  95.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart




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