Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT44 KNHC 141450
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
1000 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

Latest satellite imagery depicts that the system continues to become 
better organized this morning, with improved curved banding 
features, and deep convection consolidating near the low-level 
center. The latest subjective intensity estimates were T/2.5 from 
both TAFB and SAB. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt, and an Air 
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is about to enter the system which 
will provide more information on current intensity and structure.

The cyclone is moving westward with an estimated motion of 265/12 
kt. A strong mid-level ridge located to the north of the system will 
continue steer the system westward towards Central America. The 
ridge is expected to break down, and the cyclone will meander in 
weak steering currents, Friday through the weekend. This expected 
slow motion will cause the system to produce heavy rains over the 
same region, likely causing life-threatening flooding over portions 
of Central America. By early next week, the mid-level ridge should 
slide eastward over Florida, which should cause the system to move 
northwestward across Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. The NHC track 
forecast is in good agreement with the various consensus models, and 
is nudged slightly left towards the latest model trends.

Environmental and oceanic conditions are conducive for some 
strengthening during the next day or so while the cyclone remains 
over water. There remains uncertainty in how much land interaction 
there will be with Honduras during the next several days, but the 
model trends have been southward showing more interaction. If the 
system remains along the coast or just offshore, it will likely 
maintain intensity or slightly strengthen. However, if the 
depression moves a little south of the forecast track, the system 
could be weaker than shown below. Given the slight leftward track 
adjustment with potentially more land interaction, the latest NHC 
intensity forecast is lower than the previous and is near the middle 
of the guidance envelope. However, it must be stressed that there is 
still a lot of uncertainty in the intensity forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant,
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of
Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, and western Nicaragua.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the 
northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands where 
tropical storm warnings are in effect.

3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico by early next week where there is a risk of
strong winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest
forecast updates.

4. It is too soon to determine what impacts, if any, the system
could bring to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including
Florida, during the middle portion of next week. Residents in these
areas should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 15.7N  82.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 15.7N  83.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 15.9N  84.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 36H  16/0000Z 15.9N  85.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 48H  16/1200Z 15.9N  85.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 60H  17/0000Z 16.0N  86.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 72H  17/1200Z 16.2N  87.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  18/1200Z 18.0N  89.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  19/1200Z 21.7N  91.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Kelly