Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast Advisory

000
WTNT24 KNHC 141448
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192024
1500 UTC THU NOV 14 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N  82.6W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N  82.6W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N  82.2W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 15.7N  83.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.9N  84.9W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  20SE  20SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.9N  85.4W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  20SE  20SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.9N  85.8W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE  20SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.0N  86.2W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  20SE  20SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.2N  87.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 18.0N  89.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 21.7N  91.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N  82.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY