000 WTPZ44 KNHC 200240 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022 The satellite presentation of the low pressure system that the NHC has been monitoring for the past several days has improved today, and earlier satellite-derived wind data indicated the circulation was becoming better defined. Since then, deep convection has significantly increased near the low-level center, with signs of curved banding over the northern and eastern portions of the circulation. Based on these developments, the system now meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on a T2.0/30 kt Dvorak estimate from TAFB at 00 UTC. The center position is somewhat uncertain given that the system just formed, and the estimated initial motion is west-northwestward at 285/4 kt. This general motion should continue for the next couple of days as the cyclone moves roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. The mid-level steering ridge over northern Mexico is forecast to slide eastward later this week, while a deep-layer trough amplifies over the eastern Pacific and moves slowly toward the Baja California peninsula. The flow between these two features should induce a turn toward the north or north-northeast over the weekend, bringing the center of the system toward the coast of southwestern or west-central Mexico on Sunday. Overall, the track guidance is in very good agreement through 72 h, with larger spread noted by 96 h while the system turns toward the coast of Mexico. The NHC track forecast lies near the center of the guidance envelope, generally remaining close to the TVCE aid. The forecast track brings the system over some of the warmest SSTs in the eastern Pacific basin during the next couple of days. Also, the system will be moving within a moist and unstable environment, and the deep-layer shear is forecast to be less than 10 kt during this time. Given these favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions, the NHC forecast calls for steady to near rapid strengthening during the next few days. The system is forecast to become a hurricane by late Friday, with additional strengthening expected thereafter while it approaches the coast. The NHC forecast generally follows the IVCN multi-model consensus aid and lies just below HCCA. After moving inland by 96 h, interaction with the topography of western Mexico should cause quick weakening and dissipation of the low-level circulation by 120 h. Interests along the coasts of southwestern and west-central Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this system, as watches could be required for portions of the coastline later tomorrow or tomorrow night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 15.2N 101.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 15.3N 102.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 15.6N 103.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 16.0N 104.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 16.6N 105.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 22/1200Z 17.6N 105.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 18.9N 106.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 22.5N 105.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart