Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ44 KNHC 200240
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192022
1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022

The satellite presentation of the low pressure system that the NHC 
has been monitoring for the past several days has improved today, 
and earlier satellite-derived wind data indicated the circulation 
was becoming better defined. Since then, deep convection has 
significantly increased near the low-level center, with signs of 
curved banding over the northern and eastern portions of the 
circulation. Based on these developments, the system now meets the 
criteria of a tropical cyclone, and advisories are being initiated 
on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E. The initial intensity is set at 
30 kt based on a T2.0/30 kt Dvorak estimate from TAFB at 00 UTC.

The center position is somewhat uncertain given that the system just 
formed, and the estimated initial motion is west-northwestward at 
285/4 kt. This general motion should continue for the next couple of 
days as the cyclone moves roughly parallel to the coast of 
southwestern Mexico. The mid-level steering ridge over northern 
Mexico is forecast to slide eastward later this week, while a 
deep-layer trough amplifies over the eastern Pacific and moves 
slowly toward the Baja California peninsula. The flow between these 
two features should induce a turn toward the north or 
north-northeast over the weekend, bringing the center of the system 
toward the coast of southwestern or west-central Mexico on Sunday. 
Overall, the track guidance is in very good agreement through 72 h, 
with larger spread noted by 96 h while the system turns toward the 
coast of Mexico. The NHC track forecast lies near the center of the 
guidance envelope, generally remaining close to the TVCE aid.

The forecast track brings the system over some of the warmest SSTs 
in the eastern Pacific basin during the next couple of days. Also, 
the system will be moving within a moist and unstable environment, 
and the deep-layer shear is forecast to be less than 10 kt during 
this time. Given these favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions, 
the NHC forecast calls for steady to near rapid strengthening during 
the next few days. The system is forecast to become a hurricane by 
late Friday, with additional strengthening expected thereafter while 
it approaches the coast. The NHC forecast generally follows the IVCN 
multi-model consensus aid and lies just below HCCA. After moving 
inland by 96 h, interaction with the topography of western Mexico 
should cause quick weakening and dissipation of the low-level 
circulation by 120 h.

Interests along the coasts of southwestern and west-central Mexico 
should closely monitor the progress of this system, as watches could 
be required for portions of the coastline later tomorrow or tomorrow 
night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 15.2N 101.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 15.3N 102.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 15.6N 103.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 16.0N 104.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  22/0000Z 16.6N 105.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  22/1200Z 17.6N 105.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  23/0000Z 18.9N 106.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  24/0000Z 22.5N 105.2W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
120H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart



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