480 WTPZ44 KNHC 071441 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 900 AM MDT Sun Aug 07 2022 The depression remains disheveled this morning, with the center of the system still partially exposed to the southwest of the deepest convective activity. This structure is primarily due to dry air being imported to the center by moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear (VWS). Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T2.5/35 kt from TAFB, T2.0/30 kt from SAB, while the latest objective estimate from UW-CIMSS ADT was T2.5/35 kt. Given the lackluster satellite presentation, the initial intensity was held at 30 kt for this advisory. The depression is now moving northwest as a slightly slower pace, estimated at 315/10 kt. A mid-level ridge located northeast of the system is expected to steer it generally northwestward over the next few days. One interesting note in the immediate future is there is a weakness in this ridge to the north, partially related to an upper-level trough currently shearing the depression. If the system is able to become better aligned vertically, this could lead to a rightward shift in the short-term track. The NHC track forecast accounts for this possibility by being located on the right side of the track guidance envelope over the next 12-36 hours. This track is just a bit northeast of the previous one, though it blends back towards the consensus aids by the end of the forecast, when the system will likely be steered by the low-level trade wind flow. A weak upper-level trough located northwest of the depression is the primary feature maintaining southwesterly VWS over the system. Over the next day or so, both the GFS and ECMWF suggest this feature should decay and shift southwest, perhaps related to convection building up-shear around the depression while helping to align its low and mid-level centers. Should this process occur, intensification still appears possible. One alternate solution is that convective outflow is not able to displace the upper-level low and some amount of shear is maintained over the system. For now, the latest NHC intensity forecast will maintain a peak of 45 kt in 36-48 hours, right around the time the system will be crossing the 26 C sea surface temperature (SST) isotherm. After that time, weakening is expected over even cooler SSTs and a more stable environment. The system is still expected to become a post-tropical remnant low at the end of the forecast period. This intensity forecast is on the high side of the guidance envelope overall, but is close to the latest HCCA consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 16.8N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 17.9N 111.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 19.4N 112.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 20.7N 114.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 21.7N 115.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 22.5N 117.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 23.1N 119.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 24.0N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 24.0N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Papin