000 WTPZ44 KNHC 070834 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 300 AM MDT Sun Aug 07 2022 The combination of moderate vertical wind shear and dry air appear to be limiting the current potential for intensification of the tropical depression. The low-level center is once again exposed to the west of a burst of deep convection. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB both suggest the system is still at 30 kt and the initial intensity remains unchanged. The predicted decrease in vertical wind shear has yet to occur. However, global models are insistent the shear should relax soon. If this does happen, the tropical depression could gradually strengthen during a brief window of conducive atmospheric and oceanic environmental conditions over the next 48 hours. The cyclone is then expected to weaken after that time when it encounters sea surface temperatures of 26 degree C and a more stable and drier airmass. The peak intensity of the official forecast has been decreased slightly and it now shows the depression becoming a remnant low by day 5. The system is moving west-northwest at 300/13 kt. A mid-level ridge to the northeast is expected to steer the depression northwestward at a slightly decreased forward speed for the next few days. The depression is then expected to turn westward as it weakens and follows the low-level flow. The updated NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous official forecast and the model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 16.3N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 17.3N 110.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 18.7N 112.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 20.0N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 21.1N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 22.0N 117.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 22.8N 118.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 23.7N 121.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 24.0N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci/Brown