652 WTPZ44 KNHC 070239 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 900 PM MDT Sat Aug 06 2022 Bursts of deep convection have been developing near, and just east of the center of the cyclone for the past several hours. The low-level circulation continues to try to outrun these bursts due to ongoing moderate westerly vertical wind shear. Overall, the system does not look much better organized than it did this afternoon, and the latest Dvorak intensity estimates suggest that the system remains a 30 kt tropical depression. The westerly shear is forecast to decrease overnight and remain weak for the remainder of the cyclone's existence. The path of the depression should keep it over warm waters and within a moist thermodynamic environment for the next couple of days. Therefore strengthening is expected during that time. By 72 h, the cyclone is expected to cross the 26 degrees C isotherm and encounter a much drier and more stable airmass. These factors should cause the system to weaken and become devoid of deep convection by midweek. Model guidance continues to trend lower with their respective peak intensities for this system. Thus, the NHC forecast peak intensity has been nudged downward as well, but remains slightly higher than the various intensity consensus solutions. The depression continues its trek to the northwest, or 305/12 kt to the southwest of a mid-level ridge. This ridge should keep the cyclone on this general heading for the next few days. As the cyclone weakens and loses its convection midweek, a turn to the west-northwest in the large scale low-level flow is anticipated. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one and remains near the multi-model track consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 15.7N 107.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 16.6N 109.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 18.0N 111.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 19.3N 112.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 20.4N 114.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 21.3N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 22.2N 117.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 23.2N 120.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 23.7N 123.4W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto