Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ44 KNHC 062034
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092022
300 PM MDT Sat Aug 06 2022

Satellite imagery indicates the depression continues to produce a 
large area of convection in the eastern portion of its circulation. 
Recently, some deep convective bursts have occurred closer to its 
center, which has been partially exposed for much of today due to 
the influence of some westerly deep-layer shear. A blend of the 
UW-CIMSS ADT objective estimate (31 kt) and the subjective estimates 
from TAFB (T2.0/30 kt) and SAB (T1.5/25 kt) support maintaining a 
30-kt intensity for this advisory.

The cyclone has roughly a 48-60 h window to strengthen before it 
encounters more unfavorable environmental conditions early next 
week. The deep-layer shear is forecast to diminish below 10 kt 
during the next day or so, and the system will move over 28-29 deg C 
SSTs and within a fairly moist mid-level environment during that 
time. Therefore, at least some gradual strengthening is anticipated, 
and the official NHC forecast shows the depression becoming a 
tropical storm later tonight and peaking as a stronger tropical 
storm in about 60 h. This portion of the forecast falls in between 
the HCCA and IVCN aids. Then, drier air and cooler SSTs along its 
forecast track should induce a weakening trend through the middle of 
next week, and model simulated satellite imagery suggests the system 
could be on the verge of becoming post-tropical by day 5. 

The depression is still moving northwestward at 305/11 kt. This 
general motion should continue for the next few days as the cyclone 
is steered by a distant low- to mid-level ridge. As the system 
weakens on days 4-5, it should turn west-northwestward as it becomes 
increasingly steered by the low-level flow. The official NHC track 
forecast has been nudged slightly right of the previous track, in 
line with the trends noted in the latest multi-model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 15.0N 106.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 15.9N 108.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 17.1N 110.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 18.4N 111.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 19.8N 113.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  09/0600Z 20.8N 115.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 21.7N 116.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 23.0N 120.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  11/1800Z 24.0N 123.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart



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