000 WTPZ44 KNHC 062034 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 06 2022 Satellite imagery indicates the depression continues to produce a large area of convection in the eastern portion of its circulation. Recently, some deep convective bursts have occurred closer to its center, which has been partially exposed for much of today due to the influence of some westerly deep-layer shear. A blend of the UW-CIMSS ADT objective estimate (31 kt) and the subjective estimates from TAFB (T2.0/30 kt) and SAB (T1.5/25 kt) support maintaining a 30-kt intensity for this advisory. The cyclone has roughly a 48-60 h window to strengthen before it encounters more unfavorable environmental conditions early next week. The deep-layer shear is forecast to diminish below 10 kt during the next day or so, and the system will move over 28-29 deg C SSTs and within a fairly moist mid-level environment during that time. Therefore, at least some gradual strengthening is anticipated, and the official NHC forecast shows the depression becoming a tropical storm later tonight and peaking as a stronger tropical storm in about 60 h. This portion of the forecast falls in between the HCCA and IVCN aids. Then, drier air and cooler SSTs along its forecast track should induce a weakening trend through the middle of next week, and model simulated satellite imagery suggests the system could be on the verge of becoming post-tropical by day 5. The depression is still moving northwestward at 305/11 kt. This general motion should continue for the next few days as the cyclone is steered by a distant low- to mid-level ridge. As the system weakens on days 4-5, it should turn west-northwestward as it becomes increasingly steered by the low-level flow. The official NHC track forecast has been nudged slightly right of the previous track, in line with the trends noted in the latest multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 15.0N 106.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 15.9N 108.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 17.1N 110.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 18.4N 111.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 19.8N 113.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 20.8N 115.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 21.7N 116.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 23.0N 120.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 24.0N 123.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart