000 WTPZ44 KNHC 061441 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 06 2022 The low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring off the coast of southwestern Mexico has continued to show increased signs of organization this morning. A 0857 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass suggests its circulation has become better defined, and satellite imagery shows evidence of some curved convective banding mainly to the east of its estimated low-level position. Additionally, the subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were T2.0 and T1.5, respectively. Since the system now meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, advisories are being initiated on this system as a 30-kt tropical depression. The center is located near the western edge of the convective mass, likely due to the 10-15 kt of westerly shear that the cyclone is experiencing this morning. Although weak to moderate shear may continue to affect the system during the next couple of days, the majority of the guidance suggests that warm SSTs and sufficient mid-level moisture should allow for at least gradual strengthening through early next week. This trend is reflected in the NHC forecast, which calls for the depression to become a tropical storm by tonight and continue intensifying to near hurricane strength by Tuesday. Then, the system is forecast to move into a drier, more stable environment over decreasing SSTs, which should induce a weakening trend through the middle of next week. The estimated initial motion of the depression is northwestward, or 305/11 kt. A distant low- to mid-level ridge over the southern U.S. should steer the cyclone northwestward to west-northwestward over the next few days, keeping it well offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Although there is reasonably good agreement in the early part of the forecast period, there is above-average spread in the track guidance on days 3-5. Stronger model solutions like the GFS and HWRF lie on the northern end of the guidance envelope, while the weaker ECMWF and UKMET solutions are much further south. The official NHC forecast generally follows the multi-model consensus aids, but lies a bit north of HCCA and TVCE at later forecast times. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 14.3N 105.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 15.1N 107.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 16.2N 109.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 17.5N 111.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 19.0N 112.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 20.2N 114.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 21.1N 115.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 22.5N 119.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 23.5N 122.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart