Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Newton Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ45 KNHC 242046
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Newton Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152022
300 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022

Visible satellite imagery show Newton is reduced to a low-level
swirl devoid of deep convection.  Satellite Dvorak estimates suggest
the intensity is between 25-30 kt.  Therefore, the initial intensity
has been lowered to 30 kt, and Newton is now a tropical depression.

It remains to be seen if Newton is able to develop new central
convection as it moves over a oceanic thermal ridge with warmer sea
surface temperatures.  Environmental conditions are not expected to
improve along the forecast track, however, and global models suggest
Newton will gradually spin down.  The NHC intensity is slightly
lower than the previous advisory and now shows the depression as a
remnant low in 24 hours.  However, given the current satellite
presentation, this could occur sooner.

The depression is moving just north of west at 8 kt.  The shallow
circulation is expected to move westward in the low-level wind flow
for the next day.  This is followed by a gradual turn to the
west-southwest and southwest until the end of the forecast period.
The current forecast track is largely an update of the previous
advisory prediction with only minor adjustments.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 19.4N 113.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 19.4N 115.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 18.9N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  26/0600Z 18.0N 117.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  26/1800Z 17.0N 119.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  27/0600Z 15.9N 120.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci



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