Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 162032 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Mario Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Deep convection around Mario has dissipated with an exposed center visible on satellite imagery. A recent scatterometer pass indicates Mario has weakened to a depression, and thus the initial intensity was lowered to 30 kt. Visible satellite imagery has allowed for a more precise initial position of Mario for this advisory, with the location continuing the trend of being a bit farther southwest than anticipated. As Mario continues to weaken and lose vertical structure, the expectation is that the shallow low-level circulation will slow down and feel less of an impact from the deep-layer southerly flow. This should result in the low-level circulation staying farther west and the mid-level remnants going northward. An initial westward adjustment was made to the track to account for the farther southwest initial position, otherwise minimal changes were made to the previous track. Mario will continue to weaken as it moves over cooler waters and increasing shear. Given the lack of convection, the expectation is that Mario will become a post-tropical remnant low tonight. Thereafter, the low should dissipate into a trough by 36-48 h. While Mario is forecast to dissipate as a tropical cyclone well to the south of California, its remnant moisture will spread farther north, affecting portions of the southwestern United States by mid to late week. Locally heavy rainfall and some instances of flash flooding will be possible by Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 23.0N 117.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 23.9N 118.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/1800Z 25.0N 119.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0600Z 25.5N 120.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Chenard/Blake
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