Tropical Depression Lane Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 030833
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Lane Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132024
100 AM PST Sun Nov 03 2024

Lane is fading fast.  Strong southwesterly shear associated with the 
flow on the southern side of a broad upper-level trough has 
disrupted the circulation of the tropical cyclone.  Recent 
scatterometer data show that the low-level circulation center is 
losing definition, and the maximum winds have decreased to 30 kt at 
most.  Enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows that most of the 
associated deep convection, which was displaced well to the 
northeast of the estimated center, is dissipating.  Given the 
current degradation of circulation and convection, the system is now 
expected to degenerate into a remnant low in about 12 hours.

The initial motion is slightly south of west at around 5 kt.  This
general motion should continue for the next couple of days while
the system is steered by the shallow low-level easterlies.  The
official track forecast has again been shifted slightly southward
to conform to the latest numerical guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 11.2N 131.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 11.1N 132.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  04/0600Z 10.9N 133.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/1800Z 10.7N 135.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch