Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Discussion

188 
WTNT41 KNHC 300236
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112024
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024

The exposed center of Joyce is completely devoid of convection, with
only a few intermittent bursts noted in satellite imagery during the
past several hours. If the system is unable to generate and sustain
organized convection soon, it will degenerate to a post-tropical
cyclone on Monday. A partial scatterometer pass indicates that winds
over the eastern part of the circulation have diminished, and the
satellite intensity estimates have continued to fall this evening.
Based on these data and the degraded satellite presentation, Joyce
is downgraded to a 30-kt depression.

The storm is still moving northwestward (310/5 kt), but is forecast 
to turn northward soon toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge 
over the central Atlantic. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted 
slightly left of the previous one based on current motion trends. 
Joyce is surrounded by a dry air mass and is expected to face 
continued southwesterly shear, making it unlikely for the system to 
sustain organized deep convection going forward. Thus, the updated 
NHC forecast shows Joyce degenerating to a post-tropical remnant low 
by late Monday. However, this could occur even sooner if convection 
does not regenerate overnight. The global models agree that Joyce 
should open into a trough and dissipate by Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0300Z 22.3N  49.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 22.9N  49.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 23.6N  49.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  01/1200Z 24.5N  49.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  02/0000Z 25.7N  49.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart