210 WTPZ45 KNHC 161437 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ivette Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Some limited thunderstorm activity has recently developed around the periphery of Ivette's circulation, but so far it has lacked organization as strong easterly shear continues to affect the cyclone. If the convection does not gain organization soon, Ivette will likely become a remnant low as early as this afternoon. The initial intensity has been held at a possibly generous 30 kt, which is based on a recent Dvorak current intensity number of T2.0 from TAFB. Strong easterly shear of about 25 kt and a relatively dry atmosphere are expected to lead to weakening over the next couple of days. Assuming the current thunderstorm activity does not become organized, Ivette should become post-tropical later today. The remnant low is forecast to open up into a trough in 3 to 4 days. Ivette remains within an area of weak steering flow and it has only drifted west-southwestward over the past several hours. The global model guidance suggests that the cyclone should begin to move westward or west-northwestward within the next day or so as the low-level flow becomes better defined to the north of the system. The new NHC track forecast is along the southern side of the guidance envelope, and is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 17.1N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 17.3N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/1200Z 17.7N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0000Z 18.0N 117.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1200Z 18.2N 118.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0000Z 18.0N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1200Z 17.8N 119.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown