000 WTPZ45 KNHC 160838 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ivette Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022 A burst of deep convection that developed in the western part of Ivette's circulation last evening has since been sheared away, leaving a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds. Despite the loss of convection, a blend of TAFB's Dvorak CI number (2.0) with UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates supports maintaining 30 kt for this advisory. It's possible that some convection could redevelop since Ivette remains over warm waters of about 28 degrees Celsius. However, strong deep-layer easterly shear of about 25 kt and a relatively dry atmosphere are likely to cause any new convection to be short lived and on the less-than-organized side of the spectrum. Therefore, barring any surprises, Ivette is expected to degenerate into a remnant low later today, and gradually spin down during the next few days. Global models are in generally good agreement that the remnant low should open up into a trough in about 4 days. With the development and dissipation of recent convection, Ivette's movement has been erratic, and it's actually been nearly stationary for the past few hours. Since yesterday afternoon, however, the center has generally moved west-southwestward (245 degrees) at about 2 kt. The steering flow around the depression is weak at the moment, and there is greater-than-normal spread in the track guidance. In general, though, the remnant low is expected to move slowly westward to west-northwestward at 5 kt or less until dissipation. The new NHC track has been shifted southward from the previous forecast, mainly to account for Ivette's recent motion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 17.2N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 17.3N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/0600Z 17.6N 115.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/1800Z 17.9N 116.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0600Z 18.1N 117.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1800Z 18.2N 118.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z 18.0N 119.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg