Tropical Depression Ileana Forecast Discussion

064 
WTPZ44 KNHC 150844
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Ileana Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092024
200 AM MST Sun Sep 15 2024

All of Ileana's deep convection dissipated yesterday afternoon, and 
all that is left now is a swirl of low clouds off the coast of 
northern Sinaloa.  An ASCAT-C pass from 0410 UTC showed maximum 
winds near 30 kt over the Gulf of California near northern Sinaloa, 
and a weather station in Topolobampo is no longer reporting winds to 
tropical storm force.  As a result, Ileana is now designated as a 
30-kt tropical depression, and all coastal warnings in Mexico have 
been discontinued.

Ileana has been meandering, but the longer-term motion is 
west-northwestward, or 300/2 kt.  Model guidance indicates that the 
cyclone should turn northwestward later today but maintain a 
generally slow motion while moving over the Gulf of California.  
Due to strong southwesterly shear and a very dry atmosphere, deep 
convection is not expected to redevelop, and it's likely that 
Gordon will be declared a remnant low later this morning.  The 
remnant low is expected to dissipate on Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 25.5N 109.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 25.8N 109.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  16/0600Z 26.5N 110.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg