000 WTPA41 PHFO 302102 TCDCP1 Tropical Depression Hone Discussion Number 34 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 1100 AM HST Fri Aug 30 2024 Strong convection flared up once again last night, but more recently has weakened. The low-level center has become exposed again this morning. Subjective Dvorak analysis from PHFO, SAB and JTWC all came in at 2.0/30 kt while objective analysis ranged from 23 to 41. The initial intensity is maintained at 30 kt. Initial motion is 280/10. Hone remains in a very hostile environment with UW-CIMSS and global models showing 45 to 50 kt westerly shear along the initial portion of the forecast track. The UW-CIMSS shows this strong westerly shear holding on through 24 hours, while SHIPS guidance shows a decrease to 30 to 35 kt between 12 and 24 hours, with further weakening between 24 and 48 hours. As the convection has weakened and been sheared away from the center, the initial motion returned to a more westerly direction. The forecast track through hour 12 is on the left side of the tightly clustered guidance envelope, following the slightly more westerly track that has been observed. Between tonight and day 4, the forecast track generally follows the center of the guidance envelope which begins to show more variability, and on the right side of the previous forecast. Beyond day 4, the forecast track has been shifted to the right from the previous track. This forecast track is on the left side of the current guidance envelope. There is still a very wide range in the intensity guidance, due to the uncertainties of whether or not Hone will regain persistent convection while interacting with an upper low about 500 nm northwest of Hone, as well as what will occur with the deep layer shear. The current forecast maintains little change through the next 12 hours, with slow strengthening beyond that through day 5. Any intensification will be dependent on the westerly shear weakening, which SHIPS indicates could happen in about 24 hours. Because of the high uncertainty and guidance variability in track and intensity, it is prudent to issue a Tropical Storm Watch for portions of the Northwest Hawaiian Islands at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 21.9N 175.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 22.6N 176.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 23.7N 176.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 24.9N 177.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 26.0N 179.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 26.6N 179.1E 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 27.2N 178.0E 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 29.0N 176.3E 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 31.5N 173.8E 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster M Ballard