944 WTPA41 PHFO 300832 TCDCP1 Tropical Depression Hone Discussion Number 32 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 1100 PM HST Thu Aug 29 2024 The low level circulation center (LLCC) of Hone remains exposed this evening, with sporadic deep convection occurring 60 to 120 nm northeast of it. Deep convection near the LLCC may develop later tonight as cloud tops cool, but the overall satellite presentation is of a system in decline. Subjective Dvorak satellite current intensity estimates were 2.0/30 kt from all three fix centers. The objective Dvorak estimate from UW/CIMSS of 32 kt aligns with these subjective estimates, and the intensity is set at 30 kt for this advisory, keeping Hone a tropical depression. Hone's track shows signs of a slight jog northward, with a short- term motion of 285 degrees at 6 kt. However, this system is still a bit to the left of the previous forecast track. As before, the forecast track philosophy revolves around likely interaction of the LLCC with an upper low north of Midway Atoll. This upper low is forecast to dig southward over the next couple of days and Hone is expected to be pulled northwestward toward it. After Hone's LLCC and the upper low become aligned, the tropical cyclone is expected to resume a west-northwest motion over the western Pacific. The track guidance envelope through 72 hours remains rather tight, which is a bit surprising given the complexity of the philosophy involved. The forecast track for this cycle has been adjusted a bit to the left of the previous one to account for 12 hour movement and to keep it within the guidance envelope, which has also been nudged a bit to the left. That said, the final track mirrors the previous track's north northwest turn through 48 hours followed by a resumption of west northwest motion afterwards. Hone needs a healthy nocturnal convective bloom to begin reintensification. A very late-for-this-cycle surge seems to be starting along the northern flank of the LLCC. If Hone manages to survive its current battle with 45 kt of westerly shear, there may be an opportunity for reintensification. However, intensity models have become bearish on this possibility, with IVCN and HWRF showing modest intensification at best. As such, the intensity forecast has been lowered a bit beyond 60 hours while still allowing strengthening to a tropical storm again at 36 hours. It goes without saying that uncertainty remains high for track beyond 72 hours and for intensity beyond 60 hours. Hone should cross the International Dateline as a mid-range tropical storm on Sunday, Hawaii time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 21.6N 174.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 21.8N 175.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 22.6N 176.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 31/1800Z 23.7N 176.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 24.8N 177.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 01/1800Z 25.7N 179.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 26.4N 179.3E 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 27.4N 176.1E 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 29.5N 172.9E 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Powell