069 WTPA42 PHFO 292045 TCDCP2 Tropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number 47 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP072024 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 29 2024 Short-lived bursts of convection have been increasingly sheared to the northeast side of the elongated low level center of Gilma over the last few hours. With the low level center becoming exposed, along with the sheared convection, Gilma is expected to weaken today. Subjective Dvorak analysis from PHFO, SAB and JTWC ranged from 25 to 30 kt, with the objective analysis ranging from 28 to 34 kt. The initial intensity has been held at 30 kt, which could be a little generous given the latest satellite imagery. The initial motion is set at 290/10, as recent visible imagery suggests Gilma has begun its expected turn to the west-northwest just a little earlier as it is steered by the low-level ridge to the north. The initial position has shifted just a bit north than the previous forecast track position, which in turn has shifted the forecast track a bit north than the previous track. However this remains along the center of the tightly clustered guidance envelope. Gilma is moving into an increasingly unfavorable environment, which includes increasing westerly vertical wind shear of 20 to 35 kt. With convection already becoming intermittent and sheared from the low-level center, Gilma is still expected to become a post-tropical remnant low later today. On the current forecast track, Gilma will continue to gradually weaken as it passes north of the main Hawaiian Islands Friday, and dissipates north of Kauai Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 20.3N 151.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 20.7N 153.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 21.5N 155.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 31/0600Z 22.4N 158.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 31/1800Z 23.6N 160.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster M Ballard