Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Georgette Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 030841
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082022
200 AM PDT Wed Aug 03 2022

There is not a lot of new information to report with Georgette this 
morning. Small bursts of convection continue to sporadically fire 
southwest of the low-level center which occasionally has been 
exposed due to continued moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear. 
There has been little change with the satellite intensity estimates 
and thus the intensity remains 30 kt this advisory. The ECMWF-based 
SHIPS guidance shows little change in the shear magnitude, though it 
does pivot the vector out of the north, which could help import even 
drier, more stable air than the depression is currently 
experiencing. Georgette will also be crossing the 26 C sea surface 
temperature isotherm in the next 12-24 hours. These factors will 
likely lead to the tropical cyclone's demise, and the latest 
forecast now makes Georgette a post-tropical remnant low in about 24 
hours, when the ECMWF simulated IR imagery shows the remaining deep 
convection dissipating. The remnant low may take another day or 
two before it opens up into a trough.

A north-northeastward motion continues, though there has been a
little bit of acceleration at 030/7 kt. The current weakness north
of Georgette is expected to be replaced by a building low-level
ridge, with should result in the cyclone taking a sharp westward 
turn in the next 24-36 hours. The track forecast is just a
bit east of the prior one early on due to the current motion, but
ends up a bit south at the end of the forecast period when
Georgette opens up into a trough. This forecast is close to a 
blend of the ECMWF and GFS model tracks (GFEX). 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 16.1N 129.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 16.8N 129.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 17.5N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/1800Z 18.0N 131.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/0600Z 18.0N 133.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  05/1800Z 17.7N 135.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin



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