000 WTPZ43 KNHC 030841 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 03 2022 There is not a lot of new information to report with Georgette this morning. Small bursts of convection continue to sporadically fire southwest of the low-level center which occasionally has been exposed due to continued moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear. There has been little change with the satellite intensity estimates and thus the intensity remains 30 kt this advisory. The ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance shows little change in the shear magnitude, though it does pivot the vector out of the north, which could help import even drier, more stable air than the depression is currently experiencing. Georgette will also be crossing the 26 C sea surface temperature isotherm in the next 12-24 hours. These factors will likely lead to the tropical cyclone's demise, and the latest forecast now makes Georgette a post-tropical remnant low in about 24 hours, when the ECMWF simulated IR imagery shows the remaining deep convection dissipating. The remnant low may take another day or two before it opens up into a trough. A north-northeastward motion continues, though there has been a little bit of acceleration at 030/7 kt. The current weakness north of Georgette is expected to be replaced by a building low-level ridge, with should result in the cyclone taking a sharp westward turn in the next 24-36 hours. The track forecast is just a bit east of the prior one early on due to the current motion, but ends up a bit south at the end of the forecast period when Georgette opens up into a trough. This forecast is close to a blend of the ECMWF and GFS model tracks (GFEX). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 16.1N 129.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 16.8N 129.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 17.5N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1800Z 18.0N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0600Z 18.0N 133.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/1800Z 17.7N 135.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin