000 WTPZ43 KNHC 030234 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022 Georgette continues to hang on to tropical cyclone status. Small bursts of convection persist to the southwest of the partially exposed low-level center. Since the convective organization has not changed, the initial intensity remains at 30 kts, slightly below the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. Moderate northeasterly to northerly shear is expected over the next few days. This vertical wind shear combined with the drier surrounding environment and gradually cooling sea surface temperatures are likely to cause Georgette to become a remnant low in a day or two. There were no updates to the intensity forecast this cycle. The system is moving north-northeastward at about 6 kt into the weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by Post-Tropical Cyclone Frank. Within about a day, the low-level ridge should begin building back and turn Georgette westward as well as increase its forward speed. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous track prediction and close to the various consensus model aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 15.3N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 16.1N 129.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 17.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 17.6N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0000Z 17.9N 132.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/1200Z 17.9N 134.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/Berg