Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Georgette Forecast Discussion


750 
WTPZ43 KNHC 022037
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082022
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022

Convection associated with Georgette became slightly better 
organized after the release of the previous advisory, and although 
the cloud tops have since warmed, there is a loose band of 
thunderstorms around the southwestern portion of the circulation. 
Georgette's circulation is still well defined in recent ASCAT data, 
therefore the system is likely to remain a tropical cyclone for a 
bit longer.  Peak wind retrievals from the ASCAT-B instrument were 
27-28 kt so the initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory. 

Despite the recent slight improvement in organization, the overall 
intensity forecast reasoning remains unchanged.  A marginal 
environment characterized by moderate northeasterly shear, SSTs of 
26-27C, and mid-level humidity of 55-60 percent are likely to result 
in gradual weakening over the next couple of days. GFS and ECMWF 
model simulated satellite imagery indicates that the convection will 
wane in 36 to 48 hours, and Georgette is still predicted to 
degenerate into a remnant low around that time. The system is 
forecast to become an open trough in 3 to 4 days. 

Georgette is moving northeastward at about 6 kt. Low- to mid-level 
southwesterly flow on the south side of post-tropical cyclone Frank 
should continue to steer Georgette generally northeastward during 
the next 12 to 18 hours.  After that time, a low-level ridge is 
forecast to build to the north of the cyclone, which is expected to 
cause Georgette to turn back sharply westward.  The latest dynamical 
model envelope has again shifted northward and eastward and the NHC 
track forecast has been adjusted accordingly.  The official track 
forecast, however, lies just to the west and south of the various 
consensus aids. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 14.7N 130.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 15.5N 129.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 16.6N 129.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 17.2N 130.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/1800Z 17.7N 131.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  05/0600Z 17.7N 133.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown




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