750 WTPZ43 KNHC 022037 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022 Convection associated with Georgette became slightly better organized after the release of the previous advisory, and although the cloud tops have since warmed, there is a loose band of thunderstorms around the southwestern portion of the circulation. Georgette's circulation is still well defined in recent ASCAT data, therefore the system is likely to remain a tropical cyclone for a bit longer. Peak wind retrievals from the ASCAT-B instrument were 27-28 kt so the initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory. Despite the recent slight improvement in organization, the overall intensity forecast reasoning remains unchanged. A marginal environment characterized by moderate northeasterly shear, SSTs of 26-27C, and mid-level humidity of 55-60 percent are likely to result in gradual weakening over the next couple of days. GFS and ECMWF model simulated satellite imagery indicates that the convection will wane in 36 to 48 hours, and Georgette is still predicted to degenerate into a remnant low around that time. The system is forecast to become an open trough in 3 to 4 days. Georgette is moving northeastward at about 6 kt. Low- to mid-level southwesterly flow on the south side of post-tropical cyclone Frank should continue to steer Georgette generally northeastward during the next 12 to 18 hours. After that time, a low-level ridge is forecast to build to the north of the cyclone, which is expected to cause Georgette to turn back sharply westward. The latest dynamical model envelope has again shifted northward and eastward and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The official track forecast, however, lies just to the west and south of the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 14.7N 130.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 15.5N 129.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 16.6N 129.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 17.2N 130.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1800Z 17.7N 131.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0600Z 17.7N 133.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown