000 WTPZ43 KNHC 020846 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022 Like the last couple of nights, Georgette is exhibiting a bursting pattern this morning, with just enough convective activity to maintain writing advisories on the tropical cyclone. With that said, the convection is waning, lacks much organization, and the low-level center appears to now be exposed to the northeast of the coldest cloud tops, as indicated by a recently arriving ASCAT-C pass. Satellite intensity estimates have not changed much despite this convection, and the peak winds from the scatterometer data was only 26 kt. The initial intensity will remain 30 kt this advisory. Georgette appears to be making the long-awaited turn to the north-northeast, with the latest motion estimated at 030/4 kt. This motion is due to the presence of low- to mid-level southwesterly flow south of Frank, which is influencing Georgette's steering. However, after the next 24-48 hours, a low-level ridge is expected to build back in after Frank departs to the north. The track guidance responds to this changing synoptic pattern by making Georgette take a sharp turn westward and then west-southwestward by the end of the forecast period. The latest track forecast was shifted a little east of the prior one, but not as far east as the multi-model consensus aids. It is unclear how long Georgette will be able to survive the current marginal environment of moderate (15-20 kt) northeasterly vertical wind shear and dry (55-60 percent) mid-level relative humidity. Even sea-surface temperatures gradually cool along its track, from 27 C currently to below 26 C in 48 hours. Afterwards, both GFS and ECMWF model simulated IR images suggest the remaining convection with Georgette will dissipate, and the system is forecast to become a remnant low by Thursday afternoon. While little change in strength is shown in the NHC forecast over the next couple of days, it would not be surprising if the cyclone becomes a remnant low or loses its well-defined circulation sooner than indicated here. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 13.7N 130.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 14.4N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 15.4N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 16.2N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 16.7N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 04/1800Z 16.6N 132.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0600Z 16.1N 134.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin