Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Georgette Forecast Discussion


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Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082022
200 AM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022

Deep convection has increased again near and to the west and 
southwest of the center of the tropical cyclone.  This is likely a 
diurnal fluctuation, and the convection is not very well organized. 
The advisory intensity is held at 30 kt, which is the average of 
Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB.

The depression has been drifting a little north of west with a 
current motion estimate of just 280/2 kt.  Georgette is expected to 
turn northward or north-northeastward into a weakness in the 
subtropical ridge during the next couple of days.  Later in the 
forecast period, the ridge is likely to build to the north of the 
cyclone which should induce a turn toward the west.  The official 
forecast track is shifted a little eastward from the previous NHC 
prediction, toward the latest multi-model consensus guidance.  
However, there is a lot of spread in the model tracks, so the 
official forecast is of relatively low confidence.

Over the next several days, Georgette should remain in an 
environment of moderate east-northeasterly vertical shear and 
within a relatively dry low- to mid-level air mass.  These 
conditions are expected to prevent restrengthening of the cyclone 
and cause degeneration into a remnant low in the latter part of the 
forecast period.  The official intensity forecast is the same as the 
previous one and lies between the latest LGEM and DSHIPS guidance 
models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 12.8N 130.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 13.2N 130.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 13.8N 130.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 14.6N 129.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 15.4N 129.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  03/1800Z 16.0N 129.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 16.5N 130.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 16.5N 133.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/0600Z 15.4N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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