464 WTPZ43 KNHC 312042 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022 There has been persistent deep convection near the estimated center of Georgette for the past several hours, likely due to the convective diurnal maximum. However, a fortuitous ASCAT-B overpass that occurred at 1844 UTC over the cyclone indicates that the system has weakened into a 30 kt tropical depression. Thus, the pulsing nature of the convection associated with the cyclone over the past day or so has appeared to have taken its toll. Georgette has been moving slowly west-southwestward today, or 255/4 kt, to the south of a weak mid-tropospheric ridge. There is no change to the track reasoning, and model guidance remains in generally good agreement that the portion of the ridge to the north of the cyclone should weaken through early this week as Hurricane Frank passes well to the north. As a result, Georgette should continue to move slowly west or west-southwest through tonight and begin drifting northward early this week toward the temporary weakness in the ridge carved out by Frank. By mid-week, the ridge is forecast to re-strengthen, forcing the cyclone on a more westward track. The latest NHC forecast track is near the previous one, and is close to the TVCE consensus. Strong easterly shear caused by the outflow from the large circulation of Frank to the northeast of Georgette should prevent deep convection from persisting near the center of the cyclone long enough to support much reintensification. By late in the forecast period, the system is forecast to reach cooler waters and become surrounded by a drier airmass. This should cause further weakening, and Georgette is expected to become a remnant low by day 5, if not sooner. The official NHC intensity forecast no longer shows that Georgette will restrengthen into a tropical storm. However, it is possible some minor fluctuations in intensity could occur through midweek. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 12.7N 130.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 12.8N 130.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 13.0N 130.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 13.6N 130.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 14.4N 130.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 15.2N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 15.9N 130.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 16.2N 132.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 15.5N 136.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto