Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion

435 
WTPZ44 KNHC 070841
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142024
300 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

The depression has finally managed to produce some deep convection, 
mainly to the northwest of the low-level center, during the diurnal 
maximum period tonight. A partial scatterometer pass around 0410 UTC 
depicted 20-25 kt winds in the northwestern quadrant, thus the 
initial intensity is held at 25 kt for this advisory.

The depression is currently within a moderate vertical wind shear 
environment, and this shear is not allowing convection to become 
organized around the low-level center. Global models are in fairly 
good agreement that the system will degenerate and open into a 
trough within the next day or so, although this could occur sooner 
than forecast. The latest NHC intensity forecast follows these 
trends and now shows the system dissipating in 24 h.

The system has been moving slowly the last several hours with an 
estimated east-southeastward motion around 110/02 kt. A more 
southeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is 
anticipated later today within the low-level northwesterly wind 
flow. The latest NHC track forecast is near the previous, which lies 
near the simple and corrected-consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 13.4N 104.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 12.5N 104.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly