Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 070246
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142024
900 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E failed to produce any significant 
deep convection near its center from 1800 UTC to 0000 UTC, but 
recently, some convection has been firing up in the northwest 
quadrant.  Earlier scatterometer data from midday Wednesday showed 
that the circulation just barely met the definition of being 
considered well-defined, with 20-25 kt wind vectors seen in the 
southwestern semi-circle and weaker winds in the northeastern 
semi-circle.  

The depression is located within an environment of warm ocean 
temperatures but moderate southeasterly vertical wind shear. This 
shear should continue and is unlikely to allow any significant 
convection to organize around the weak low-level center.  Global 
model solutions agree that the depression will continue to weaken.  
In fact, most global models show the depression opening up into a 
trough in about 24 h.  The official intensity forecast follows the 
global model solutions, and indicates dissipation in 24-36 h.

Low-level northwesterly flow is expected to steer the system toward 
the southeast over the next 24 h until it dissipates.  A minor 
southwestward adjustment was made to the NHC track forecast, closer 
to the latest consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 13.4N 104.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 12.7N 104.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 11.9N 103.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen