Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 061453
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142024
800 AM MST Wed Nov 06 2024

The National Hurricane Center has been tracking a well-defined low 
pressure system located several hundred miles southwest of the 
southwestern Mexican coast.  Beginning around 2300 UTC on Tuesday, 
deep convection formed over the low-level circulation and cold cloud 
tops have persisted for over 15 hours.  TAFB has classified this 
system with a T2.0, indicating that is has reached the necessary 
requirements of maintaining deep, organized convection.  Therefore, 
the system is being designated as Tropical Depression Fourteen-E and 
the initial intensity is set to 30 kt.  Scatterometer data is 
expected later today which should provide a better intensity 
estimate.

The depression is drifting northeastward at 3 kt.  A narrow 
mid-level ridge is building to the north of the cyclone and expected 
to turn the depression eastward later today.  The system should 
briefly accelerate and turn more east-southeastward to southeastward 
on Thursday before drifting back to the east-southeast on Friday in 
the low-level flow.  The NHC track forecast lies between the simple 
and corrected consensus aids.

Surrounding dry mid-level humidities and moderate vertical wind 
shear seem to be the limiting factors preventing the depression from 
any significant strengthening.  Global models indicate there should 
be a brief period in about day or so that the deep-layer vertical 
wind shear should relax slightly and possibly allow for a little 
strengthening.  The depression is expected to lose its organized 
deep convection over the weekend and open into a trough.  However, 
there is a possibility this occurs sooner.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 13.1N 106.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 13.1N 105.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 12.5N 104.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 11.3N 103.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 10.6N 103.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  09/0000Z 10.2N 102.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 10.1N 102.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci