Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 042038
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052024
200 PM MST Sun Aug 04 2024

The depression has changed little in organization today, as a broad 
area of showers and thunderstorms with some modest banding is 
present on the western side of the low-level circulation. Subjective 
Dvorak intensity estimates and a partial ASCAT-C pass at 1747 UTC 
both suggest that the initial intensity remains 30 kt this 
afternoon. 

The track forecast for TD Five-E is very dependent on a disturbance 
to the east of the system (96E), which has a high chance of becoming 
a tropical cyclone over the next day or so. Most of the global 
models show both of these systems interacting with and rotating 
cyclonically around each other. A variety of different model 
solutions are depicted, from TD Five-E becoming absorbed by the 
larger 96E, to TD Five-E remaining dominant, or a near equal merger 
of both systems in the 48-60 h forecast time frame. For this cycle, 
the NHC track forecast still shows TD Five-E being absorbed by 96E 
and dissipating beyond 48 h, though this is far from certain. It is 
possible one of the other two scenarios mentioned above could pan 
out. Most of the track guidance due to the interaction initially 
show a southward motion that swings rapidly back north or northwest 
over the next couple of days before the vortex trackers cannot 
distinguish between the two systems. As mentioned this morning 
though, dynamical models historically handle interaction cases like 
this poorly, so confidence in the track forecast is quite low, 
despite the agreement between the dynamical guidance of this binary 
interaction. 

Until the disturbance to the east starts to interact with TD Five-E, 
the environment appears relatively favorable for some 
intensification, and the NHC intensity forecast shows strengthening 
into a 45 kt tropical storm over the next 24-36 h, prior to the 
system's forecast absorption. Note that the interaction of the two 
systems also results in a dramatic expansion of the 34-kt wind radii 
by 48 h, which should be considered more of the combined wind field 
of both features.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 15.5N 113.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 14.8N 113.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 13.9N 113.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 13.7N 113.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 15.2N 114.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin