Issued at 200 AM MST Tue Sep 30 2025
648 WTPZ45 KNHC 300833 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025 200 AM MST Tue Sep 30 2025 The area of low pressure located well south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula has become better organized over the past several hours. Satellite imagery shows persistent convection and the development of a well-defined curved band. In addition, a recent 0355 UTC Metop-B ASCAT pass revealed a well-defined center along with a couple of 30-kt wind barbs. As a result, the system has met the criteria to be classified as a tropical cyclone. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 2.0/30 kt and 2.5/35 kt, respectively. Based on a blend of these data, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Fifteen-E with an initial intensity of 30 kt. Fifteen-E is estimated to be moving slowly west-northwestward, or 295 degrees at 4 kt. This west-northwestward motion is expected to continue today, along the southern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge situated north of the cyclone. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected later today as a weak low to the north of Fifteen-E erodes the ridge, with this general motion likely continuing through around 48 hours. Thereafter, a building mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to steer Fifteen-E west-northwestward beyond 48 hours through the end of the forecast period. The official track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope and is closest to the TVCE consensus aid. Fifteen-E will remain over warm waters and within a moist environment during the next several days, but moderate to strong east-northeasterly vertical wind shear is expected to hinder significant intensification. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next 12 hours, and Fifteen-E is expected to reach tropical storm strength later today. Little change in strength is anticipated through much of the forecast period, followed by some modest strengthening on days 4 and 5 as the shear is forecast to relax slightly. The intensity forecast is of low confidence and remains near the middle of the guidance envelope, closest to a blend of the SHIPS and HCCA intensity aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 9.4N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 9.8N 113.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 10.8N 114.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 11.8N 114.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 12.6N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 02/1800Z 13.1N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 13.5N 117.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 14.2N 119.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 15.0N 120.6W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)
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