429 WTPZ41 KNHC 211441 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Estelle Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 21 2022 Estelle has diminished to a swirl of mostly low- to mid-level clouds with very little organized deep convection. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT agree that the surface wind speeds are now around 30 kt. Based on these estimates, the system is being downgraded to a tropical depression. Estelle should remain over cold water and continue to weaken. Unless there is a significant redevelopment of deep convection, the system is likely to be designated as a post-tropical cyclone later today. Estelle continues to move west-northwestward at 11 kt while being steered by the flow on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. A west-northwestward to westward motion is expected until the system opens up into a trough in a couple of days. The official forecast is shifted slightly north of the previous prediction and is in line with the new track model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 22.7N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 23.0N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 22/1200Z 23.4N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/0000Z 23.6N 129.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1200Z 23.8N 131.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci