Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Estelle Forecast Discussion


429 
WTPZ41 KNHC 211441
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Estelle Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062022
800 AM PDT Thu Jul 21 2022

Estelle has diminished to a swirl of mostly low- to mid-level 
clouds with very little organized deep convection.  Subjective and 
objective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT agree that the 
surface wind speeds are now around 30 kt.  Based on these 
estimates, the system is being downgraded to a tropical depression.  
Estelle should remain over cold water and continue to weaken. Unless 
there is a significant redevelopment of deep convection, the system 
is likely to be designated as a post-tropical cyclone later today.  

Estelle continues to move west-northwestward at 11 kt while being 
steered by the flow on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge.  
A west-northwestward to westward motion is expected until the 
system opens up into a trough in a couple of days.  The official 
forecast is shifted slightly north of the previous prediction and is 
in line with the new track model consensus. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z 22.7N 125.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 23.0N 126.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  22/1200Z 23.4N 128.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  23/0000Z 23.6N 129.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  23/1200Z 23.8N 131.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci




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