Tropical Depression Eleven-E Public Advisory

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 031435
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112024
900 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024

...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...CONTINUED HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 95.6W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E
was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 95.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and 
a northeastward to northward motion is forecast through Friday. On 
the forecast track, the system is expected to move toward southern 
Mexico and make landfall within the warning area tonight or early 
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is possible, and the system is forecast to be 
a tropical storm when it reaches the coast of Mexico.  Weakening is 
expected after landfall, and the system is forecast to dissipate on 
Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO
header WTPZ41 KNHC.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area beginning later today and continuing into early
Friday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce an 
additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 8 
inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, 
Veracruz Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may lead to 
areas of flooding and mudslides. 

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with 
Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather 
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding from storm surge is possible in 
areas of onshore flow.

SURF:  Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven