Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 021436
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112024
900 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024

First light visible imagery and a GMI microwave overpass during the 
night show that the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E is again 
a little to the southwest of the previous track.  While the system 
is part of a large area of convection, the convection is generally 
poorly organized, and there has been little change in the various 
satellite intensity estimates since the last advisory.  Based on 
this, the initial intensity remains 30 kt.

The track forecast is of low confidence. Satellite imagery and model 
analyses indicate that the depression is currently absorbing or 
merging with the vorticity of the EP97 disturbance, and this has 
resulted in the system center moving slowly southwestward during the 
past 6-12 h.  The models have diverse solutions for the subsequent 
track, with the GFS and Canadian taking the cyclone northward into 
eastern Mexico, while the UKMET forecasts a west-northwestward 
motion offshore parallel to the coast and the ECMWF forecasting the 
system to dissipate over water.  The new forecast track is a 
compromise between the the GFS and UKMET forecast and shows the 
center making landfall between 36-48 h in the current Tropical Storm 
Warning area.  This forecast has some significant changes in 
direction and speed from the previous forecast, and additional 
adjustments may be necessary later today and tonight.

Regardless of exactly where the cyclone tracks, it is expected to 
be in an environment of moderate to strong easterly shear through 
at least 48 h.  This should limit the intensification, and the 
forecast peak intensity of 40 kt remains at the upper edge of the 
intensity guidance.  The main impact from this system is expected 
to be heavy rainfall, which could lead to flooding and mudslides 
over portions of southern Mexico and western Guatemala.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it
reaches the coast of southern or southeastern Mexico.  A Tropical
Storm Warning remains in effect for portions of the southern coast
of Mexico.

2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to 
portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and 
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, 
especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican 
states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco and coastal Guerrero.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 14.9N  95.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 14.8N  96.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 14.9N  96.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 15.3N  97.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 16.0N  97.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 60H  05/0000Z 16.4N  98.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven