Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 020845
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112024
300 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024

Data from both ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C scatterometers show that the 
center of the small circulation is located somewhat west to 
west-southwest of the earlier track.  There were a couple of 
scatterometer vectors showing minimal tropical-storm-force winds, 
but these appear to be rain-inflated.  The advisory intensity is 
kept at 30 kt based on subjective and objective satellite 
estimates, and the unimpressive appearance of the system.

With the re-positioning of the estimated center, the motion is 
highly uncertain but my best guess is around 290/5 kt.  The track 
forecast is also quite uncertain, but needs to be shifted westward 
from the previous one.  The new official forecast is a compromise 
between the previous NHC prediction, the trajectory model 
forecasts, and the dynamical models which are farther south.

The cyclone continues to have the potential for a little 
strengthening before it reaches the coast, although fairly strong 
northeasterly vertical wind shear will likely limit its 
intensification.  The official intensity forecast is near the upper 
end of the model guidance.  The main impact from this system
is expected to be heavy rainfall, which could lead to flooding and
mudslides over portions of southern Mexico and western Guatemala.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it
reaches the coast of southern or southeastern Mexico.  Since the 
system is now farther west than earlier indicated, the Tropical 
Storm Warning has been extended westward along the southern coast 
of Mexico.

2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to 
portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and 
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, 
especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican 
states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, and Tabasco.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 15.4N  95.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 15.5N  96.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 15.6N  96.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 15.7N  97.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 16.1N  97.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 60H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch