Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion


973 
WTPZ41 KNHC 020232
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112022
900 PM MDT Thu Sep 01 2022

The depression is gradually getting better organized, with a recent 
SSMIS microwave image showing a more continuous convective band 
forming on the western side of the circulation.  The initial 
intensity remains 30 kt on this advisory, which is a blend of 
T2.5/35 kt and T1.5/25 kt Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, 
respectively.  The depression has the opportunity to strengthen 
during the next 36 hours or so while it remains over warm waters and 
in an environment of low shear, although any intensification is 
likely to be gradual given the system's broad nature.  The NHC 
official forecast still shows a peak intensity of 45 kt in 36 
hours, which is between the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids.  The 
system is expected to weaken after 36 hours as it moves over much 
colder waters, and it is likely to lose all its deep convection and 
become post tropical in 2 to 3 days.

The depression remains on a steady northwestward track of 320/9 kt, 
positioned along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge.  
Over the next 2 days, a blocking ridge over the western United 
States is expected to strengthen further, which will force the 
cyclone to turn toward the west-northwest and west over the weekend. 
The updated NHC track forecast has been nudged northeastward 
compared to the previous forecast based on the latest suite of 
models, but the system's tropical-storm-force winds are expected to 
remain well offshore of the western coast of Baja California Sur.  
Winds aside, outer rainbands and large swells are expected to affect 
portions of the southern and central Baja California peninsula coast 
during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 19.7N 111.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 20.7N 112.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 22.5N 113.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 24.1N 115.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 25.2N 117.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  04/1200Z 25.9N 120.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  05/0000Z 26.1N 122.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0000Z 25.5N 127.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/0000Z 25.0N 131.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg




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