973 WTPZ41 KNHC 020232 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 01 2022 The depression is gradually getting better organized, with a recent SSMIS microwave image showing a more continuous convective band forming on the western side of the circulation. The initial intensity remains 30 kt on this advisory, which is a blend of T2.5/35 kt and T1.5/25 kt Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, respectively. The depression has the opportunity to strengthen during the next 36 hours or so while it remains over warm waters and in an environment of low shear, although any intensification is likely to be gradual given the system's broad nature. The NHC official forecast still shows a peak intensity of 45 kt in 36 hours, which is between the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. The system is expected to weaken after 36 hours as it moves over much colder waters, and it is likely to lose all its deep convection and become post tropical in 2 to 3 days. The depression remains on a steady northwestward track of 320/9 kt, positioned along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. Over the next 2 days, a blocking ridge over the western United States is expected to strengthen further, which will force the cyclone to turn toward the west-northwest and west over the weekend. The updated NHC track forecast has been nudged northeastward compared to the previous forecast based on the latest suite of models, but the system's tropical-storm-force winds are expected to remain well offshore of the western coast of Baja California Sur. Winds aside, outer rainbands and large swells are expected to affect portions of the southern and central Baja California peninsula coast during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 19.7N 111.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 20.7N 112.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 22.5N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 24.1N 115.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 25.2N 117.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 04/1200Z 25.9N 120.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 05/0000Z 26.1N 122.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0000Z 25.5N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0000Z 25.0N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg