Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 031435
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112024
900 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024

The depression continues to produce a large, but poorly organized, 
area of convection, with the low-level center most likely in the 
northern portion of the convective mass.  Satellite intensity
estimates from SAB and TAFB remain 30 kt, and this is the initial 
intensity for this advisory.

The center position has a larger than normal amount of uncertainty, 
and the initial motion is also a bit uncertain at 045/5.  The track 
forecast guidance suggests a generally northward motion should occur 
during the next 24-36 h, and the new track forecast follows this in 
bringing the center to the coast of Mexico in 12-24 hours and inland 
over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec after that.  It is possible that 
some adjustments to the forecast may occur if data that better shows 
the center position becomes available.

While the environment does not favor significant strengthening 
before landfall, any intensification at all would bring the system 
to tropical storm strength, and the new intensity forecast continues 
to show this occurring. After landfall, the system should quickly 
weaken, with the remnants eventually becoming absorbed into the 
large area of disturbed weather that is forming over the western 
Gulf of Mexico.  While the forecast shows the system lasting through 
36 h, it could dissipate at any time as it crosses the mountains of 
Mexico.

Regardless of whether intensification occurs, the primary threat 
remains heavy rainfall that will continue over portions of southern 
Mexico for the next day or two.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it
reaches the coast of southern Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning
remains in effect for portions of the southern coast of Mexico.

2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to 
portions of southern Mexico this week. Flooding and mudslides, 
especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially 
across portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, 
Tabasco and coastal Guerrero.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 15.2N  95.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 15.9N  95.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 17.1N  95.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  05/0000Z 18.2N  95.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL/INLAND
 48H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven