000 WTPZ41 KNHC 012034 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 01 2022 The area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring a few hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has developed organized deep convection and a well-defined center. Therefore, the system is now being classified as a tropical depression and the initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt based on recent ASCAT data and a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. It should be noted that the depression is quite large with its cloud field extending several hundred miles across. The depression is moving northwestward at 9 kt, and this motion with some increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days as the system remains steered by the western periphery of a subtropical ridge. After that time, the weakening system should turn to the west within the low-level flow. The models are in fair agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. The environmental conditions appear favorable for intensification during the next 36 to 48 hours, however, given the sprawling nature of the depression only slow strengthening seems likely during that time. Beyond a couple of days, the system is expected to track over much cooler SSTs and into a dry and stable airmass. These conditions should cause the system to decay into a remnant low in about 60 h with continued weakening forecast thereafter. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the HCCA and IVCN guidance. Although the center of the system is forecast to remain a couple of hundred miles off the Baja California coast, outer rainbands and large swells are expected to affect portions of the southern and central Baja California peninsula coast during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 18.9N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 19.9N 111.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 21.4N 112.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 23.1N 114.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 24.5N 116.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 25.4N 119.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 04/1800Z 25.8N 121.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1800Z 25.6N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1800Z 24.9N 130.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi