Tropical Depression Eighteen Public Advisory

000
WTNT33 KNHC 041438
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
1000 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

...SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 76.9W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,
Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth, and a Tropical Storm Watch
for Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila,
Camaguey, and Las Tunas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana,
Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego
de Avila, Camaguey, and Las Tunas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected 
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued 36 
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of 
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside 
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life 
and property should be rushed to completion.system.  Additional 
watches or warnings could be required today.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible 
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before 
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, 
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are 
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida Keys should closely
monitor this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression 
Eighteen was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 76.9 West. 
The depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A 
northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and forecast 
to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the system 
is expected to move near Jamaica tonight, be near or over the Cayman 
Islands on Tuesday, and approach Cuba on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to 
become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Eighteen can be found in the 
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO 
header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by
Tuesday afternoon and are possible in western Cuba and the Isle of 
Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
Jamaica by this evening and are possible in central Cuba on 
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean
with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and portions of
Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with
locally up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding could occur over
portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible.

Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of
the Southeast United States during mid- to late week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with 
Tropical Depression Eighteen, please see the National Weather 
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE:  Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica tonight 
and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday. Storm surge could raise water 
levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas 
of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, 
including the Isle of Youth.

SURF:  Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much
of the western Caribbean during the next few days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Kelly