Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 24 2025
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 250235 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 24 2025 The depression has changed little over the past several hours. Geostationary satellite imagery has shown deep convection periodically forming near the center, with a broad, loose band wrapping around the northern side of the circulation. Subjective Dvorak estimates remain at T2.0 and the initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. During the next couple of days, environmental and oceanic conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual strengthening. The sea surface temperatures should be between 27-26 deg C, with light-to-moderate vertical wind shear, and sufficient mid-level humdities. Around 48 to 60 h, global models suggest the wind shear should gradually increase, inducing a gradual weakening trend. By the end of the forecast period, cooling ocean waters and increasingly dry air are expected reduce and dissipate the deep, organized convection. GFS and ECMWF are suggesting this may occur sooner, and the official forecast now shows the depression becoming a post-tropical cyclone by day 4. The estimated motion of the depression is 270 degrees at 7 kt. A subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should be the main steering feature for the next 5 days, which will initially continue its westward heading with a decreasing forward speed. By the end of the weekend, an amplifying mid- to upper-level mid-latitude trough should slightly weaken the ridge, causing the system to bend west-northwestward. As the vortex becomes more shallow by the end of the forecast period, the post-tropical cyclone should turn back westward in the low-level flow. The latest official forecast has been nudged to the north, and lies between the HCCA and the previous prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 13.2N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 13.3N 117.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 13.4N 118.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 13.5N 119.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 13.8N 120.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 27/1200Z 14.4N 120.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 14.9N 121.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 15.5N 124.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 30/0000Z 15.2N 127.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci
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