000 WTPZ43 KNHC 050848 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021 400 AM CDT Fri Nov 05 2021 The depression has not become much better organized since yesterday. Some small clusters of deep convection have formed to the northeast and east of the center, and there are some thin convective banding features over the southern and western portions of the circulation. Cirrus-level outflow from the system is rather weak at this time. The advisory intensity estimate is held at 30 kt which is in general agreement with the latest Dvorak analyses from TAFB and SAB, along with earlier scatterometer observations. The latter data, however, suggest that this may be a slightly generous estimate. Latest center fixes indicate a continued westward motion, or around 265/6 kt. A mid-level ridge associated with a large high pressure system centered over western Mexico should provide the primary steering mechanism for the cyclone during the forecast period. A mainly westward motion at a somewhat faster forward speed is expected, as the system encounters slightly stronger easterlies on the south side of the ridge within the next couple of days. The dynamical track guidance is in fairly good agreement, although the GFS model is a bit of a northern outlier. The official forecast track is similar to the previous one, and close to the model consensus. Since it is still not very well organized, the tropical cyclone is not expected to strengthen much through today. Although the environment is seemingly conducive for strengthening, the model guidance is not very aggressive in showing intensification during the next few days. This may be partially due to a lack of mid- to upper-level instability ,as suggested by the decay-SHIPS output. The official forecast, like the previous one, shows only slow strengthening beginning tomorrow, following the intensity model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 9.7N 91.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 9.5N 92.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 9.2N 94.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 9.0N 96.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 8.9N 98.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 07/1800Z 9.1N 100.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 9.5N 103.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 10.6N 108.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 11.5N 112.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch