834
FOPZ13 KNHC 190836
PWSEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022
0900 UTC SUN JUN 19 2022
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
10N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
15N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 11(26)
15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
10N 100W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
15N 100W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH